German GP - Betting Preview

Nico to bounce back at his 'home' Grand Prix



After a fantastic result for @F1BetPreview, including 4 winners out of 6, the teams head to Germany at the midpoint of the season with rivalries heating up throughout the leaderboard.

The 2 points gained by Bianchi in Monaco is still enough to hold Caterham and the disappointing Sauber off in 9th position. Lotus and Torro Rosso are fighting closely for 7th whilst a fascinating scrap for 3rd continues. Mclaren, Force India, Ferrari and Williams are within touching distance of each other and the difference in prize money between 3rd and 6th will motivate the teams and the persistent development of the car. Red Bull are the only team relatively on their own but the four time German world champion will not want to be beaten by his new teammate Ricciardo who sits 28 points ahead.

It was starting to look like Rosberg was easing away from Hamilton in the biggest fight of all but his first DNF was punished by Hamilton to close the gap to just four points. We wrote two weeks ago that it was a must win race for Hamilton and he duly delivered with the added bonus of Rosberg failing to gain any points after a gearbox failure. 

Nico will be itching to put the disappointment behind him and put on a show for the German fans, yet a confident Lewis Hamilton can dominate this sport, shown by his 4 consecutive wins earlier in the season. The loss of FRIC may drag the rest of the field ever so slightly towards Mercedes but their advantage is still set to be evident across the weekend.

It's hard to call this race and again I cannot see their being much between the Mercedes duo. Sunday could throw some thunderstorms into the mix, making it even harder to predict how the race will pan out but I am really looking forward to it. Right throughout the field battles will commence once more. Could this be the race where drivers and teams stamp their authority on the 2014 season?

Best bets of the weekend

Winner: Nico Rosberg - 3.1

Nico appears to have taken his DNF on the chin and looks extra motivated rather than demotivated this weekend. It's a 50/50 call between Hamilton and Rosberg and at that price, Nico is probably worth the punt at his home Grand Prix.

Winner without Hamilton and Rosberg: Daniel Ricciardo - 3.3

Ricciardo looks strong this weekend and a podium finish is a realistic target for the Aussie. If the track stays hot then Red Bull seem to be able extract more out of the tyres than most.

Qualifying Top Ten: Jean-Eric Vergne - 2.8

It worked last week and hopefully it will again this week. The Torro Rosso boys are always on the cusp of a making it unto Q3 and their pace looks decent this weekend.

Other Bets

Fastest Lap: Nico Rosberg - 3.3

I'm expecting a close battle to the wire between Rosberg and Hamilton, it could go either way.

All odds courtesy of Betfair Exchange during FP3 on Saturday Morning.

@F1BetPreview @morgie247

Silverstone GP - Betting Preview

Must win for Hamilton on home soil

A year on from tyre drama at Silverstone and the Mercedes showdown should be the talking point  from the famous British circuit as it reaches it's 50th anniversary this weekend.

After Williams out qualified the field in Austria, the Championship Leaders will be keen to assert their dominance once more and put in a strong performance throughout. Yet Hamilton and Rosberg will only be thinking of one thing, beating each other.

The pendulum has swung in the direction of Rosberg who has beat his teammate in the last three races and still has yet to finish outside the top two, resulting in a 29 point advantage.

The pressure has been ramped up by the German, evident in qualifying as Hamilton has struggled on what normally is his advantage on teammates in years gone by. Lewis has to get back to what he does best and concentrate on delivering the perfect lap in qualifying. A pole position will completely change the mindset of Hamilton who thrives on feeling the best and the body language will flip in a heartbeat. Can he get that all important one lap under the weight of the British public? Difficult call...

Showers in the air may help the Brit throughout the weekend as the potential of rain threatens Silverstone. The rest of the field will again be looking for help to catch the runaway Constructors Leaders and expect Williams to drop back into the chasing pack as the circuit combines long straights and high speed corners, bringing the Red Bull back into play after a disappointing Austrian GP two weeks ago.

Best bets of the weekend

Winner: Nico Rosberg - 3.25

The pressure is cranked up for Lewis this weekend at his home Grand Prix and I fear it maybe too much for him. Rosberg is in form, won in Silverstone last year and has that Championship lead to attack the circuit without the fear of losing the World Title. As much as I would love to see Hamilton win, 3.25 is a price that shouldn't be ignored

Podium Finish: Sebastian Vettel - 3.1

The Red Bull race pace has looked strong in FP2 and the unlucky streak Vettel is currently stuck in may end this weekend.

Top 6 Finish: Jenson Button - 3.0

Bit of a homer but the Mclaren look to have some good pace this weekend. A strong performance in rainy conditions on Saturday could boost Button and his chances of scoring some solid points.

Other Bets

Fastest Lap: Lewis Hamilton - 2.7

Whether he's out in front or chasing the lead, Hamilton will want to try and put on a show at some stage for the fans and he should be quick at the end of the race.

Quali/Win Double: Rosberg/Hamilton - 8

This outcome would definitely be one for the fans. If Rosberg can get pole then Hamilton will be full steam ahead to try and catch the Championship Leader. One to remember.

Qualifying Top 10: Daniil Kvyat - 2.04

At least one Toro Rosso has made the top 10 in qualifying in the last three races and Kvyat has done it twice in three races.

Bets we've made this weekend

All the bets above - couldn't help myself for Silverstone!

All odds courtesy of Betfair Exchange during FP2 on Friday Afternoon GMT.

Canadian GP - Betting Preview

Best of the rest to take the spotlight in Canada

@F1BetPreview @Morgie247

With plenty of overtaking opportunities, the Canadian GP has hosted a number of corkers in recent years, suiting the cars that consistently excel on straight lines and reaching top speeds.  Williams and Force India will be looking to make the most of their power advantage and score solid points. Add in the improving Red Bull and the heavily upgraded Ferrari and the 'best of the rest' battle is shaping up to be an intriguing one, perfect for a punt.

Canada is the host for round 7 of the F1 World Championship where the battle reignites between Hamilton and Rosberg.

After the break up in Monaco where Lewis struggled to accept his teammate beating him for the first time in 5 races, publicly it's all happy families this weekend. The Stevenage man (it's not that bad, I've lived there long enough) looks to have taken a step back and rightly reflected on his childish antics, knowing he has the historical advantage in Canada to capitalize and take back the World Championship lead. Rosberg on the other hand will need to use the confidence built in Monaco and be on stunning form to challenge Lewis who's late breaking style suits Canada perfectly.  Expect to see the Mercedes drivers pull away, extend their lead in the constructors and lock horns for the 7th time this season.



A dry, one stop strategy is likely for the whole field so obtaining a tactical advantage will be difficult during the race, although safety cars are often seen as drivers dare to extract more out of the car and flirt with the walls.

Never take your eyes off the Canadian GP - guaranteed overtakes, guaranteed drama.

Best bets of the weekend

Quali/Race double: Lewis Hamilton - 1.79

Not a great price but that's just a reflection of the dominance expected by Hamilton this weekend.

Podium Finish: Valtteri Bottas - 8.0

Cracking price for a strong looking Williams, confirmed by Massa in FP3. Bottas has been quiet in recent races but expect him to shine in suitable conditions.

Top 6 Finish: Nico Hulkenburg - 2.56

Hulkenburg has consistently shown this season he has the ability to score good points on a variety of circuits, including Monaco. The Force India continues to show a solid race pace and I expect Hulkenburg to be up there come Sunday.

Other Bets

Safety Car? Yes - 1.68

Enough spins in practice to convince me that there's likely to be a safety car at least once during the race.

Fastest Lap: Nico Rosberg - 3.45

He often comes on strong during the latter stages of the race. Expect him to conserve tyres and attack Lewis towards the end of the GP putting in a fastest lap in the process.

Qualifying Top 10: Sergio Perez - 1.91

The Force India has the advantage over Mclaren and can qualify in the top 10.

Bets we've made this weekend

Quali/Race double: Lewis Hamilton - 1.79

Safety Car? Yes - 1.68

Podium Finish: Valtteri Bottas - 8.0

Fastest Lap: Nico Rosberg - 3.45 

Top 6 Finish: Nico Hulkenburg - 2.56

All odds courtesy of Betfair Exchange during FP3 on Saturday Afternoon GMT

Monaco GP - Betting Preview

Forget the rest - Nico is still the challenge to Lewis

@F1BetPreview @Morgie247

Round 6 of the Formula 1 2014 season takes us to Monte Carlo for the Monaco Grand Prix, a track full of history and a race full of intrigue.

This week Red Bull rightly claimed that the power unit driving Mercedes to a 2014 Constructors Championship is the major difference between the manufacturers and their drivers will not be too far behind the Silver Arrows in Monaco. A similar story was told in Barcelona and look how that panned out. 

FP1 proved that Red Bull are close, with Ricciardo coming up short by 2 and a half tenths. The gap may make Mercedes sweat a touch but they won't be needing buckets, it's all about inter-team battles again this weekend.

Perez has battled back against Hulkenburg and I expect him to qualify quicker than his team mate, likewise Bottas in the Williams who has proven his one lap pace is impressive. Alonso will continue his dominance of Raikkonen, whilst Vettel should bounce back against Riccairdo after his podium in Barcelona. But the focus continues up the front.

Rosberg won his first Monaco GP last year after qualifying on pole and racing away to victory, an achievement likely to soften the damaged confidence he's suffered over the previous four races. Early signs in FP1 show there's very little between Rosberg and Hamilton, even if Lewis hit the snooze button once to often earlier in the day. The stage could be set for Nico to shine and get his season back on track, reminding the Brit in the process that there's a long road ahead to the Drivers World Championship.


Best Bets of the weekend

Total Classified Drivers: Over 16.5 - 2.02

Don't be fooled by the Monaco reputation. There will be minimal overtaking with drivers looking to get out of the turbulent air and jump rivals in the pit stops. Drivers will be cautious and content to keep position, rather than test the unstable grip levels of the 2014 cars. Hold your breath round the first lap and you could have some easy money this weekend.

Quali/Race Double: Rosberg - 4.1

The outcome to the Quali/Race double is likely to be decided in Qualifying as the pole sitter tends to win in Monaco. The odds are too good to ignore for Rosberg to repeat his success last year. If you want to cover your bet I'd suggest backing the Quali/Race Double for Hamilton at 2.36. I cannot see them switching after Qualifying.

Quali/Race Double: Hamilton - 2.3

As mentioned above this bet could be used to cover the Rosberg double or if you fancy it yourself. There's question marks over whether Hamilton can dominate like Vettel did towards the end of 2013. Here is his chance to prove the doubters wrong.

Other Bets

Qualifying Winner: Lewis Hamilton - 1.86

Nico qualifying on pole last year makes this a difficult call. The German may be 4-1 down in qualifying but the score is 1-1 in the dry and early signs show it's going to be close. This is a track where heightened determination and adrenaline can lead to mistakes, often punished by the Monaco circuit. I'm going to lean towards Hamilton but I can't back at that price with confidence.

Podium Finish: Fernando Alonso - 3.7

Fernando may get the better of the Red Bull's during the race, Ricciardo and Vettel may fight hard against each other and let Alonso in.

Top 6 Finish: Sergio Perez - 4.5

The Force India look strong this weekend and their smooth package suits Monaco nicely. Perez has decent qualifying speed so should be there or thereabouts come Sunday.

Bets we've made this weekend

Quali/Race Double: Hamilton - 2.3

Total Classified Drivers: Over 16.5 - 2.02

All odds courtesy of Betfair Exchange on Friday Morning GMT after FP1 and FP2

Spanish GP - Betting Preview

Red Bull will be closer - but not close enough

Week 5 of the Formula 1 2014 season takes us to the Circuit de Catalunya in Spain as the European stint kicks in and upgrades are expected up and down the paddock.

Red Bull and Ferrari have often relish the opportunity to exploit their historical downforce advantage in Spain, yet the huge gap between themselves and the dominant Mercedes duo is unlikely to be in major jeopardy this weekend.

The lead Mercedes have over Red Bull in the Constructors Championship has increased to a staggering 97 points in just four races, whilst in the Drivers Championship, Hamilton has closed the gap to just four points over Rosberg after three consecutive race victories. 

For Red Bull to turn this season around they'll need to make imminent inroads into that advantage, so news that software updates to the Renault engine are planned for the Canadian GP in June will only hinder any belated charge in Spain.

The weather is likely to be warm and dry throughout the weekend, with a very small of chance of rain on Sunday. After a three week break since China, all 11 teams are likely to bring a variety of upgrades and improved packages, therefore it will be trickier to predict the outcome for Saturday and Sunday, particularly lower down the order. Early indications in FP1 suggest that Mclaren have improved, whilst Ferrari look stronger at a track suited to them.

It's hard to forget the emotional victory last year by Fernando Alonso who won his second Spanish GP emphatically over Rosberg and Hamilton. Both Nico and Lewis qualified on the front row, yet attentions were consistently focused in their mirrors as they struggled with tyre degradation and grip throughout. 

Unfortunately for the chasing pack, I can't see a similar capitulation in 2014.

Best Bets of the weekend

Qualifying Winner: Lewis Hamilton - 1.6

The Winner and Qualifying markets are understandably dominated by Hamilton and Rosberg and it is difficult to find great value. Similarly to previous weekends I edge towards the raw pace of Hamilton as he looks to crank up the pressure on Rosberg in qualifying and put the German on the back foot prior to race day.

Podium Winner: Daniel Riccardo - 2.86

With Hamilton and Rosberg likely to be scrapping for the win, the third and final podium place continues to offer value. We tipped Alonso in China previously and although it wouldn't surprise me to see the Spaniard close, I fancy Ricciardo to step up and continue to exert his stance at Red Bull.

Top 6 Finish: Jenson Button - 2.52

The top 6 market is dominated by Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari but it rarely concludes in such a simple fashion. Mclaren have struggled of late but I fancy Jenson Button at that price to potentially cause an upset and get Mclaren back on track.

Other Bets

Podium Finish: Fernando Alonso - 2.6

Alonso stepped up last year, he could easily do the same with an improving Ferrari.

Quali/Race Double: Lewis Hamilton - 2.0

If you're a Lewis Hamilton fan then this bet is for you, it wouldn't surprise me at all if he emulated his performance at China.

Race Win: Daniel Ricciardo - 26

Don't put your house on it, but if the race between Hamilton and Rosberg causes incident, someone else will have to cross the finishing line first.

Bets we've made this weekend

Qualifying Winner: Lewis Hamilton - 1.6

Podium Finish: Daniel Riccardo - 2.86

Top 6 Finish: Jenson Button - 2.52

Quali/Race Double: Lewis Hamilton - 2.0

All odds courtesy of Betfair Exchange on Friday Morning GMT after FP1 and before FP2

Chinese GP - Betting Preview

Can Lewis throw a knockout blow in round 4?

An exhilarating encounter in Bahrain showcased one of the best inter-team battles in recent memory. Now it is time for the 11th Grand Prix at the Shanghai International Circuit to flourish and host round 4 of the 2014 F1 season, fast becoming a memorable fight between Lewis Hamilton and NIco Rosbeg

Two successive 1-2's and maximum points for Mercedes has consolidated the strong advantage Lewis and Nico are currently enjoying. It would be a major shock to see any of the chasing pack significantly push them this weekend, particularly as the lengthy straights emulate Bahrain and suit the power-packed Mercedes engine.

Lewis Hamilton will be targeting three consecutive wins in China, a feat never achieved by the 2008 World Champion in his formula 1 career. Yet the exciting display at Bahrain proved to the world that Lewis will not be strolling away with World Title number two. Only a majestic defense drive kept Nico and his fresher, softer tyres at bay.

Lewis admitted that Nico was the quicker man in Bahrain, confirmed by the German's pumped up, steely manor on the podium. Nico is likely to carry that intensity and determination into the weekend, looking to avenge the previous two defeats to his former karting teammate.

Both Mercedes drivers have had success in China, Hamilton recording two wins whilst Rosberg earned his first ever win at the same circuit in 2012.

The 56 laps in China is often affected by rain and early forecasts suggest that the heavens will target qualifying, the third time in four races this year. Tyre degradation was a major factor last year with the eventual winner Fenando Alonso pitting on lap 6 on his first stint, indicating that Force India may have another strong race if they can go easy on the tyres.

With Mercedes likely to dominate Qualifying and the Race, a variety of markets have been considered in finding the best value this bank holiday weekend.

Best Bets of the weekend

Lewis Hamilton - Qualifying Winner - 1.86

I'd back Hamilton 80% of the time to beat his teammate in qualifying and with Mercedes certain to have the fastest car, this looks great value.

Fernando Alonso - Podium Finish - 2.76

Fernando won in China last year and his early showing in FP2 proves that Ferrari should have a strong weekend here for their new Team Principal Marco Mattiacci.

Kimi Raikkonen - Top 6 - 1.95

Raikkonen will show his true class sooner rather than later, it wouldn't surprise me if it's here at China.

Other Bets

Daniel Ricciardo - Podium Finish - 4.0

Although Daniel hasn't got the points on the board, his form has deserved more and a podium is not out of the question

Nico Rosberg - Race Win - 2.98

Really good value for a determined Nico Rosberg. The price difference is far too big for the quality difference between Lewis and Nico

Hamilton/Rosberg - Quali/Winner Double - 4.3

Rosberg started on pole in Bahrain and Hamilton finished on top, the reverse this weekend? At 4.3 it's worth a punt.

Bets We've made:

Hamilton Qualifying Winner - 1.86

Fernando Alonso - Podium Finish - 2.76

Hamilton/Rosberg Quali/Winner Double - 4.3

@F1BetPreview

All odds courtesy of Betfair on Friday Afternoon GMT after FP1 and FP2

Bahrain GP Betting Preview - Hamilton or Rosberg?

Bahrain GP Betting Preview

After predicting two race wins and two pole positions we look ahead to Bahrain, under the lights for the first time in 2014, where it is difficult to see the pendulum swinging away from Mercedes and their stunning early form.

The team would never admit it, but Malaysia was as comfortable as it get's in a extremely satisfactory weekend for all involved at the Mercerdes AMG F1 team. Lewis Hamilton stated that 'the race was tougher than it may have looked' but inside he knows that as far as a race weekend goes, that was simple. The only factor that could have prevented the 2008 World Champion from winning after pulling away on the first lap was a lack of concentration or complacency.

Reliability will be the only doubting factor concerning Mercedes in their quest for three successive race wins, yet their dominance in Malaysia showed that Hamilton and Rosberg can coast through the latter stages of a race and not push their cars to any damaging limits.

The drivers are likely to welcome the news that Bahrain has become the third night race in the 2014 F1 calendar. A drop in temperature during the night will make the 57 laps more bearable for the drivers and the cars and tyres will not be too displeased either.

There will be no real surprises at the Sakhir Circuit, as the teams participated in heavy testing throughout the winter in Bahrain. Upgrades to performance will be minor rather than major in such a short space of time from last Sunday, so the relative performance in Malaysia is likely to be emulated.

Fuel consumption could be the prominent talking point this weekend as heavy breaking and long straights will drain the allotted 100 litres of fuel, seemingly favouring Mercedes and Williams on evidence from Melbourne and Malaysia.

After two previous dramatic wet qualifying sessions, it looks set to be bone dry throughout the weekend and finally the true one lap performance will be tested on Saturday in the 10th Bahrain Grand Prix.

Race Winner

Unless there is a first lap crash or a major mistake in qualifying, it's difficult to look past Hamilton and Rosberg for the race win after their faultless 1/2 in Malaysia.

Hamilton is the outright favourite at 1.83, whilst Rosberg sits second at 3.45. The key determinant of the race outcome and whether Rosberg can challenge Hamilton is his qualifying performance. If Nico can start on the front row, something he hasn't managed in the first two races of 2014, then he will have a shot at Lewis down the long straight and into turn 1. Rosberg jumped from 3rd to 1st before turn 1 in Melbourne and from 3rd to 2nd in Malaysia, so there's no doubt he has already got a firm grip on the start procedure.

If Mercedes land a 1/2 in Qualifying then it's definitely worth a punt on Nico as his fast starts will give Hamilton something to think about. Yet a confident, smiling Lewis will be difficult to overcome and therefore he deserves the 'Best Bet' title this week.

Alonso's three race victories in Bahrain makes him an outside shot for the win but he's unlikely to keep up with the Silver Arrows.

Best Bet: Lewis Hamilton -1.83

Good Shout: Nico Rosberg (If he start's on the front row after Qualifying) Currently - 3.45

Long Shot: Fernando Alonso - 32.0

Qualifying Markets

Hamilton can make it a hat-trick of pole positions on Saturday and he is the clear favourite to achieve that feat at 1.55

If you are looking for better value then predicting who can finish in the top three of Qualifying may be your cup of tea.

Williams have been hindered by the rain in previous qualifying sessions and it wouldn't surprise me if Massa or Bottas takes the third spot in qualifying. Otherwise Vettel could overcome the lack of straight line speed under the RB10 and continue the impressive improvements made by Adrian Newey and co.

Best Bet: Qualifying Winner - Lewis Hamilton - 1.55
Good Shout: Qualifying Top 3 - Sebastian Vettel - 2.6
Long Shot: Qualifying Top 3 -  Felipe Massa - 3.55


Podium Finish

Similarly to the Qualifying Top 3 Market, there is seemingly one spot up for grabs if the Mercedes earn their second successive 1/2.

It's a good time to back the chasing pack for a podium finish as fuel consumption and tyre wear will be challenging to manage. Alonso and Magnussen provide some good value to make an impact in Bahrain.

Best Bet: Nico Rosberg - 1.43
Good Shout Fernando Alonso - 3.05
Long Shot: Kevin Magnussen - 7.4


Other Bets

Nico Hulkenburg to finish in the Top 6 - 2.16

Jean Eric Vergne to finish in the points - 2.62

Lewis Hamilton fastes lap - 2.8

All odds courtesy of Betfair on Friday Evening GMT after FP1 and during FP2