Malaysian GP 2014 Betting Preview
The new-age F1 treads further into the unknown this weekend as the hot and humid Sepang Circuit awaits, providing a vigorous challenge for all the teams and drivers concerned. Yet a major slice of 2013 will take the limelight as high degrading tyres sit at the forefront of thoughts after P1 and P2.
Hamilton topped P1 and Rosberg followed that up in P2, yet the difference in times tells the real story as Ferrari and Red Bull have seemingly dragged back Mercedes after their dominance in Melbourne. Mercedes have complained about the life of the medium tyre in the long runs and last year's persistent problems on the tyres looks set to reappear this weekend as the scorching Malaysian temperatures light up the track.
So where does that leave Mercedes? They seem to have more in hand over their rivals, particularly in a qualifying set up. The 8 tenths of a second advantage quoted by Christian Horner for Mercedes engines on the long straights will be a major advantage in overtaking struggling cars on used tyres. This is likely to be Red Bull and Ferrari who may attempt longer stints in order to leapfrog Mercedes with fewer pit stops.
Red Bull have been dominant in Sepang recently with Vettel winning three out of last four and Red Bull earning an infamous 1,2 in 2013. Multi-21 t-shirts should be visible in the grandstands throughout the weekend, although Red Bull would love to be in a similar position and have to relay the same message this weekend. Alonso and Button make up the previous winners in the last 5 seasons.
Who's going to win?
Putting reliability to one side, the race will hinge on whether Mercedes can manage the race and tyres effectively without surrendering pace for the chasing pack to catch them. Throw in the likelihood of torrential thunderstorms and the undoubted extreme heat drivers have to endure, then there is no reason why Malaysia will not surpass the drama created in Melbourne.
Hamilton goes in as race favourite at 2.66 on Betfair with Rosberg just behind him on 3.20 and the price gap between the two is far more realistic than in Melbourne. Again it's difficult to bet against at least one of the Mercedes boys taking the top step of the podium. If Hamilton didn't have his cylinder failure he would have had a fantastic battle with Rosberg in Australia, yet I still believe the race management of Rosberg will give him an advantage over the season. However Hamilton's sheer pace in qualifying should get him to the front where he can dominate and start to silence critics of his ability to control and think his way through an entire GP. I wouldn't put my house on him to take the chequered flag as it's too close to call between the two, but the luck may be with him on Sunday.
There is brilliant value to have in the rest of the pack with Vettel currently at 11.5, Alonso 16.5 and Button 20.5 respectively. Red Bull's surge back to winning GP's is looking quicker than expected and it's only a matter of time before Vettel puts it all together. If the strong speculation that the Mercedes tyres are degrading quickly is true then Vettel is the man to have a punt on.
The Williams boys represent a good long shot bet with Massa at 29.0 and Bottas 25.0. The overtaking power and confidence shown by Bottas in Melbourne is enough for me to suggest he has a decent chance if the race goes his way.
Best Bet: Lewis Hamilton 2.66
Good Shout: Sebastian Vettel 11.5
Long Shot: Valtteri Bottas 25.0
Qualifying
Hamilton timed it perfectly in Qualifying in Australia and I believe he will repeat his qualifying success in Malaysia. Mercedes topped the times in P1 and P2 and look to have 10% more in their locker in one-lap speed.
Changeable conditions is the only thing likely to stop Mercedes winning qualifying so the Qualifying Top 3 market is the way to go for a punt.
Rain seemed to hinder the Williams charge for a successful qualifying so Massa at 3.8 and Bottas at 4.6 should be backed if thunderstorms avoid the Sepang Circuit.
If the heavens open then Button could have a say in the top 3 of qualifying. He was unlucky to miss out Q3 in Melbourne and Magnussen rightly took the glory two weeks ago, however Button will be itching to regain control of the team and put in a noticeable performance.
Best Bet: Qualifying Winner - Lewis Hamilton 2.08
Good Shout: Qualifying Top 3 - Valtteri Bottas 4.6
Long Shot Qualifying Top 3 - Jenson Button 5.6
Podium Finish
Another race of mystery - another great podium market.
Vettel knows how to race this circuit. The only thing stopping his fantastic record at Malaysia, three wins in four, is the reliability of the RB10. If the car get's him to the finish, it's likely to be on the podium.
Raikkonen was the master of managing his Lotus tyres last year and his solid times in practice so far suggests a great chance to outshine Alonso.
Kobayashi became the latest enemy of Felipe Massa two weeks ago, so he should be itching to get into that Williams to try and emulate the all action performance by Bottas
Best Bet: Sebastian Vettel 2.96
Good Shout: Kimi Raikkonen 5.1
Long Shot: Felipe Massa 4.3
Other Bets
Hamilton wins Qualifying and Rosberg wins the race double - 7.0
Jean Eric Vergne to finish in the top 6 - 6.6
Valtteri Bottas for fastest lap - 12.0
All odds courtesy of Betfair on Friday Morning GMT after P1 & P2
Friday 28 March 2014
Sunday 16 March 2014
Rosberg Romps Home!
Betting Review
Rosberg won the race at 9/2, predicted as the best bet for the weekend. Button and Hulkenburg performed well and both finished in the top 7.
Lewis Hamilton took pole, resulting in Any Mercedes Driver 4/7 and Hamilton 6/4 both coming in. Bottas took a gearbox penalty and started 15th in the race
None of the Podium betting came in as Alonso finished 5th, Raikkonen 8th and Vettel retired, the Ferrari's never had the pace to trouble the top 3.
Magnussen was the top pick for finishing in the top 6 and he thrived in the race, finishing 3rd. Hulkenburg finished just outside in 7th whilst Perez and Sutil finished outside the top 10.
Big profits made in Australia - Check back for a betting preview of Malaysia in 2 weeks time
Race Review
As predicted earlier in the week, Nico Rosberg has won the Australian Grand Prix by 25 seconds from Aussie Daniel Ricciardo, with debutant Kevin Magnussen taking the final spot on the podium for Mclaren.
Rosberg lead from the first lap following a slow get away and early engine failure suffered by Lewis Hamilton, allowing the German to charge past Ricciardo into the first corner. It was plain sailing from then on for Rosberg, with reliability the only concern for the Mercedes team who proved over the weekend they have the quickest car by a comfortable margin.
Ricciardo's fantastic performance in qualifying was backed up by a strong race at his home Grand Prix, becoming the first podium for an Aussie in Melbourne. Red Bull rightly faced severe scrutiny by critics for the RB10's numerous reliability issues and Ricciardo will be pleasantly surprised the car made it home, particularly after World Champion Vettel retired due to power related issues, similar to Hamilton.
Kevin Magnussen completed the top 3 with a faultless performance for Mclaren, overtaking Hamilton at the start of the race and keeping Ricciardo on his toes towards the final stages of the contest. Button's 4th place finish confirms that Mclaren have a good package this year and Ron Dennis will feel they're in a great position to challenge the Mercedes in the near future.
Fernando Alonso ground out a 5th place finish for Ferrari, yet their lack of speed was evident during Fernando's long stint behind Hulkenburg in the Force India. They will feel that updates to the car are desperately needed to compete with the teams at the top.
Valteri Bottas' stunning drive to 6th place has proven that Williams are one of those top teams. If Massa hadn't been cleaned out by Kobayashi and Bottas didn't acquire a puncture after heavily kissing the barrier then a podium was a realistic target for the resurgent British team.
Force India were solid with Hulkenburg finishing 7th, whilst the Torro Rosso's have a great platform to build their season from with two points finishes.
Sauber got both their cars home, the only consolation for a lackluster performance, whilst Marussia will be celebrating with Chilton 14th and Bianchi 16th respectively.
Lotus and Caterham - 2 retirements each - Work needed
Rosberg won the race at 9/2, predicted as the best bet for the weekend. Button and Hulkenburg performed well and both finished in the top 7.
Lewis Hamilton took pole, resulting in Any Mercedes Driver 4/7 and Hamilton 6/4 both coming in. Bottas took a gearbox penalty and started 15th in the race
None of the Podium betting came in as Alonso finished 5th, Raikkonen 8th and Vettel retired, the Ferrari's never had the pace to trouble the top 3.
Magnussen was the top pick for finishing in the top 6 and he thrived in the race, finishing 3rd. Hulkenburg finished just outside in 7th whilst Perez and Sutil finished outside the top 10.
Big profits made in Australia - Check back for a betting preview of Malaysia in 2 weeks time
Race Review
As predicted earlier in the week, Nico Rosberg has won the Australian Grand Prix by 25 seconds from Aussie Daniel Ricciardo, with debutant Kevin Magnussen taking the final spot on the podium for Mclaren.
Rosberg lead from the first lap following a slow get away and early engine failure suffered by Lewis Hamilton, allowing the German to charge past Ricciardo into the first corner. It was plain sailing from then on for Rosberg, with reliability the only concern for the Mercedes team who proved over the weekend they have the quickest car by a comfortable margin.
Ricciardo's fantastic performance in qualifying was backed up by a strong race at his home Grand Prix, becoming the first podium for an Aussie in Melbourne. Red Bull rightly faced severe scrutiny by critics for the RB10's numerous reliability issues and Ricciardo will be pleasantly surprised the car made it home, particularly after World Champion Vettel retired due to power related issues, similar to Hamilton.
Kevin Magnussen completed the top 3 with a faultless performance for Mclaren, overtaking Hamilton at the start of the race and keeping Ricciardo on his toes towards the final stages of the contest. Button's 4th place finish confirms that Mclaren have a good package this year and Ron Dennis will feel they're in a great position to challenge the Mercedes in the near future.
Fernando Alonso ground out a 5th place finish for Ferrari, yet their lack of speed was evident during Fernando's long stint behind Hulkenburg in the Force India. They will feel that updates to the car are desperately needed to compete with the teams at the top.
Valteri Bottas' stunning drive to 6th place has proven that Williams are one of those top teams. If Massa hadn't been cleaned out by Kobayashi and Bottas didn't acquire a puncture after heavily kissing the barrier then a podium was a realistic target for the resurgent British team.
Force India were solid with Hulkenburg finishing 7th, whilst the Torro Rosso's have a great platform to build their season from with two points finishes.
Sauber got both their cars home, the only consolation for a lackluster performance, whilst Marussia will be celebrating with Chilton 14th and Bianchi 16th respectively.
Lotus and Caterham - 2 retirements each - Work needed
Monday 10 March 2014
Melbourne 2014 Betting Preview
Melbourne 2014 - Get over the finish line and you could be in the points!
The unpredictable euphoria surrounding F1 in 2014 is providing a superbly fascinating opening Grand Prix in Melbourne this week. The well documented changes to the specifications of the new V6's has given constructors a pounding headache as faltering reliability continues to cloud a likely winner for this year's season opener. Brilliant for the viewer, difficult for the teams, disastrous for Sebastian Vettel.
Kimi's win last year was a surprise but not a huge shock as the Lotus outshone the rest of the field with impressive tyre saving whilst Jenson Button's win for the debuting Brawn GP in 2009 was expected after some stunning testing pace in Barcelona pre-Oz. But this is different gravy.
Looking at pre-season testing in Bahrain, the Mercedes boys look to have a slight edge over the field with Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg consistently sparring at the top end of the time sheets, alongside Ferrari, Force India and a fantastic revival by Williams, led by Felipe Massa. The Brazilian is looking to rejuvenate his F1 career after Fernando Alonso dominated him at Ferrari, and he was the man to set the fastest time in Bahrain throughout the winter.
Pace is important, but finishing the race is the only way to gain vital points early doors. A range of high and low budget constructors have embarrassingly struggled to get to grips with the new specifications, particularly those using the overheating Renault engines.
Most notably world champions Red Bull who finished 9th in the total km standings with last year's Australian winners Lotus finishing dead last in the same saddening league table and both are unlikely to be threatening a victory this year.
Who's going to win?
Hamilton leads the way at 5/2 with Rosberg a clear second favourite at 9/2, followed by Alonso in the Ferrari, Massa in the Wililams and Button in the improving Mclaren. It's hard to look past Mercedes for the win, yet reliability also hit the team hard during the latter stages of testing and the possibility of a 1) 2) finish is grim. The large difference in price suggests Rosberg is a better looking bet and his slicker, controlled style may suit the car in making it to the chequered flag. JB represent's strong value at 11/1, with the Mclaren finishing every race last year, albeit at a canter but their improved pace could see them challenging for the top spot on the podium in Australia. Finally if you fancy a long shot then Force India could be the answer. Led by the returning Hulkenburg, the team showed signs of genuine progression in spurts during testing and like Lotus last year, they could start the year strong.
Best Bet: Nico Rosberg 9/2
Good Shout: Jenson Button 11/1
Long Shot: Nico Hulkenburg 33/1
Other Markets
Qualifying Lap
I can't look beyond a Mercedes driver to take this on Saturday, seeing as the team appeared to have extra in the tank that wasn't shown in testing, with no super soft runs on low fuel. Backing any of the two Mercedes drivers at 4/7 should be a banker, however if that's too short for punters then a 'fired up' Lewis Hamilton at 6/4 is the man to back. Williams may well spoil the party and Bottas has the ability to string together a stella lap, proved by his 3rd in Canada last year
Best Bet: Any Mercedes Driver 4/7
Good Shout: Lewis Hamilton 6/4
Long Shot: Valteri Bottas 16/1
Podium Finish
Mclaren, Williams, Force India and Ferrari look the best bets to fill the podium after Mercedes. Experience should prove vital in getting to the finish unscathed in unknown territory with the turbocharged V6's.
Best Bet: Alonso 15/8
Good Shout: Raikkonen 3/1
Long Shot: Vettel 5/1
Top 6
Similarly to the points scored market this really is a wide open field from probably 14 out of the 22 drivers.
If your looking for value, i would take a punt at Magnussen in the Mclaren, the Force India drivers Hulkenburg and Perez, and Sutil went well here last year, he's a long shot with the Sauber.
The unpredictable euphoria surrounding F1 in 2014 is providing a superbly fascinating opening Grand Prix in Melbourne this week. The well documented changes to the specifications of the new V6's has given constructors a pounding headache as faltering reliability continues to cloud a likely winner for this year's season opener. Brilliant for the viewer, difficult for the teams, disastrous for Sebastian Vettel.
Kimi's win last year was a surprise but not a huge shock as the Lotus outshone the rest of the field with impressive tyre saving whilst Jenson Button's win for the debuting Brawn GP in 2009 was expected after some stunning testing pace in Barcelona pre-Oz. But this is different gravy.
Looking at pre-season testing in Bahrain, the Mercedes boys look to have a slight edge over the field with Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg consistently sparring at the top end of the time sheets, alongside Ferrari, Force India and a fantastic revival by Williams, led by Felipe Massa. The Brazilian is looking to rejuvenate his F1 career after Fernando Alonso dominated him at Ferrari, and he was the man to set the fastest time in Bahrain throughout the winter.
Pace is important, but finishing the race is the only way to gain vital points early doors. A range of high and low budget constructors have embarrassingly struggled to get to grips with the new specifications, particularly those using the overheating Renault engines.
Most notably world champions Red Bull who finished 9th in the total km standings with last year's Australian winners Lotus finishing dead last in the same saddening league table and both are unlikely to be threatening a victory this year.
Who's going to win?
Hamilton leads the way at 5/2 with Rosberg a clear second favourite at 9/2, followed by Alonso in the Ferrari, Massa in the Wililams and Button in the improving Mclaren. It's hard to look past Mercedes for the win, yet reliability also hit the team hard during the latter stages of testing and the possibility of a 1) 2) finish is grim. The large difference in price suggests Rosberg is a better looking bet and his slicker, controlled style may suit the car in making it to the chequered flag. JB represent's strong value at 11/1, with the Mclaren finishing every race last year, albeit at a canter but their improved pace could see them challenging for the top spot on the podium in Australia. Finally if you fancy a long shot then Force India could be the answer. Led by the returning Hulkenburg, the team showed signs of genuine progression in spurts during testing and like Lotus last year, they could start the year strong.
Best Bet: Nico Rosberg 9/2
Good Shout: Jenson Button 11/1
Long Shot: Nico Hulkenburg 33/1
Other Markets
Qualifying Lap
I can't look beyond a Mercedes driver to take this on Saturday, seeing as the team appeared to have extra in the tank that wasn't shown in testing, with no super soft runs on low fuel. Backing any of the two Mercedes drivers at 4/7 should be a banker, however if that's too short for punters then a 'fired up' Lewis Hamilton at 6/4 is the man to back. Williams may well spoil the party and Bottas has the ability to string together a stella lap, proved by his 3rd in Canada last year
Best Bet: Any Mercedes Driver 4/7
Good Shout: Lewis Hamilton 6/4
Long Shot: Valteri Bottas 16/1
Podium Finish
Mclaren, Williams, Force India and Ferrari look the best bets to fill the podium after Mercedes. Experience should prove vital in getting to the finish unscathed in unknown territory with the turbocharged V6's.
Best Bet: Alonso 15/8
Good Shout: Raikkonen 3/1
Long Shot: Vettel 5/1
Top 6
Similarly to the points scored market this really is a wide open field from probably 14 out of the 22 drivers.
If your looking for value, i would take a punt at Magnussen in the Mclaren, the Force India drivers Hulkenburg and Perez, and Sutil went well here last year, he's a long shot with the Sauber.
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