Monaco GP - Betting Preview

Forget the rest - Nico is still the challenge to Lewis

@F1BetPreview @Morgie247

Round 6 of the Formula 1 2014 season takes us to Monte Carlo for the Monaco Grand Prix, a track full of history and a race full of intrigue.

This week Red Bull rightly claimed that the power unit driving Mercedes to a 2014 Constructors Championship is the major difference between the manufacturers and their drivers will not be too far behind the Silver Arrows in Monaco. A similar story was told in Barcelona and look how that panned out. 

FP1 proved that Red Bull are close, with Ricciardo coming up short by 2 and a half tenths. The gap may make Mercedes sweat a touch but they won't be needing buckets, it's all about inter-team battles again this weekend.

Perez has battled back against Hulkenburg and I expect him to qualify quicker than his team mate, likewise Bottas in the Williams who has proven his one lap pace is impressive. Alonso will continue his dominance of Raikkonen, whilst Vettel should bounce back against Riccairdo after his podium in Barcelona. But the focus continues up the front.

Rosberg won his first Monaco GP last year after qualifying on pole and racing away to victory, an achievement likely to soften the damaged confidence he's suffered over the previous four races. Early signs in FP1 show there's very little between Rosberg and Hamilton, even if Lewis hit the snooze button once to often earlier in the day. The stage could be set for Nico to shine and get his season back on track, reminding the Brit in the process that there's a long road ahead to the Drivers World Championship.


Best Bets of the weekend

Total Classified Drivers: Over 16.5 - 2.02

Don't be fooled by the Monaco reputation. There will be minimal overtaking with drivers looking to get out of the turbulent air and jump rivals in the pit stops. Drivers will be cautious and content to keep position, rather than test the unstable grip levels of the 2014 cars. Hold your breath round the first lap and you could have some easy money this weekend.

Quali/Race Double: Rosberg - 4.1

The outcome to the Quali/Race double is likely to be decided in Qualifying as the pole sitter tends to win in Monaco. The odds are too good to ignore for Rosberg to repeat his success last year. If you want to cover your bet I'd suggest backing the Quali/Race Double for Hamilton at 2.36. I cannot see them switching after Qualifying.

Quali/Race Double: Hamilton - 2.3

As mentioned above this bet could be used to cover the Rosberg double or if you fancy it yourself. There's question marks over whether Hamilton can dominate like Vettel did towards the end of 2013. Here is his chance to prove the doubters wrong.

Other Bets

Qualifying Winner: Lewis Hamilton - 1.86

Nico qualifying on pole last year makes this a difficult call. The German may be 4-1 down in qualifying but the score is 1-1 in the dry and early signs show it's going to be close. This is a track where heightened determination and adrenaline can lead to mistakes, often punished by the Monaco circuit. I'm going to lean towards Hamilton but I can't back at that price with confidence.

Podium Finish: Fernando Alonso - 3.7

Fernando may get the better of the Red Bull's during the race, Ricciardo and Vettel may fight hard against each other and let Alonso in.

Top 6 Finish: Sergio Perez - 4.5

The Force India look strong this weekend and their smooth package suits Monaco nicely. Perez has decent qualifying speed so should be there or thereabouts come Sunday.

Bets we've made this weekend

Quali/Race Double: Hamilton - 2.3

Total Classified Drivers: Over 16.5 - 2.02

All odds courtesy of Betfair Exchange on Friday Morning GMT after FP1 and FP2

Spanish GP - Betting Preview

Red Bull will be closer - but not close enough

Week 5 of the Formula 1 2014 season takes us to the Circuit de Catalunya in Spain as the European stint kicks in and upgrades are expected up and down the paddock.

Red Bull and Ferrari have often relish the opportunity to exploit their historical downforce advantage in Spain, yet the huge gap between themselves and the dominant Mercedes duo is unlikely to be in major jeopardy this weekend.

The lead Mercedes have over Red Bull in the Constructors Championship has increased to a staggering 97 points in just four races, whilst in the Drivers Championship, Hamilton has closed the gap to just four points over Rosberg after three consecutive race victories. 

For Red Bull to turn this season around they'll need to make imminent inroads into that advantage, so news that software updates to the Renault engine are planned for the Canadian GP in June will only hinder any belated charge in Spain.

The weather is likely to be warm and dry throughout the weekend, with a very small of chance of rain on Sunday. After a three week break since China, all 11 teams are likely to bring a variety of upgrades and improved packages, therefore it will be trickier to predict the outcome for Saturday and Sunday, particularly lower down the order. Early indications in FP1 suggest that Mclaren have improved, whilst Ferrari look stronger at a track suited to them.

It's hard to forget the emotional victory last year by Fernando Alonso who won his second Spanish GP emphatically over Rosberg and Hamilton. Both Nico and Lewis qualified on the front row, yet attentions were consistently focused in their mirrors as they struggled with tyre degradation and grip throughout. 

Unfortunately for the chasing pack, I can't see a similar capitulation in 2014.

Best Bets of the weekend

Qualifying Winner: Lewis Hamilton - 1.6

The Winner and Qualifying markets are understandably dominated by Hamilton and Rosberg and it is difficult to find great value. Similarly to previous weekends I edge towards the raw pace of Hamilton as he looks to crank up the pressure on Rosberg in qualifying and put the German on the back foot prior to race day.

Podium Winner: Daniel Riccardo - 2.86

With Hamilton and Rosberg likely to be scrapping for the win, the third and final podium place continues to offer value. We tipped Alonso in China previously and although it wouldn't surprise me to see the Spaniard close, I fancy Ricciardo to step up and continue to exert his stance at Red Bull.

Top 6 Finish: Jenson Button - 2.52

The top 6 market is dominated by Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari but it rarely concludes in such a simple fashion. Mclaren have struggled of late but I fancy Jenson Button at that price to potentially cause an upset and get Mclaren back on track.

Other Bets

Podium Finish: Fernando Alonso - 2.6

Alonso stepped up last year, he could easily do the same with an improving Ferrari.

Quali/Race Double: Lewis Hamilton - 2.0

If you're a Lewis Hamilton fan then this bet is for you, it wouldn't surprise me at all if he emulated his performance at China.

Race Win: Daniel Ricciardo - 26

Don't put your house on it, but if the race between Hamilton and Rosberg causes incident, someone else will have to cross the finishing line first.

Bets we've made this weekend

Qualifying Winner: Lewis Hamilton - 1.6

Podium Finish: Daniel Riccardo - 2.86

Top 6 Finish: Jenson Button - 2.52

Quali/Race Double: Lewis Hamilton - 2.0

All odds courtesy of Betfair Exchange on Friday Morning GMT after FP1 and before FP2