Chinese GP - Betting Preview

Can Lewis throw a knockout blow in round 4?

An exhilarating encounter in Bahrain showcased one of the best inter-team battles in recent memory. Now it is time for the 11th Grand Prix at the Shanghai International Circuit to flourish and host round 4 of the 2014 F1 season, fast becoming a memorable fight between Lewis Hamilton and NIco Rosbeg

Two successive 1-2's and maximum points for Mercedes has consolidated the strong advantage Lewis and Nico are currently enjoying. It would be a major shock to see any of the chasing pack significantly push them this weekend, particularly as the lengthy straights emulate Bahrain and suit the power-packed Mercedes engine.

Lewis Hamilton will be targeting three consecutive wins in China, a feat never achieved by the 2008 World Champion in his formula 1 career. Yet the exciting display at Bahrain proved to the world that Lewis will not be strolling away with World Title number two. Only a majestic defense drive kept Nico and his fresher, softer tyres at bay.

Lewis admitted that Nico was the quicker man in Bahrain, confirmed by the German's pumped up, steely manor on the podium. Nico is likely to carry that intensity and determination into the weekend, looking to avenge the previous two defeats to his former karting teammate.

Both Mercedes drivers have had success in China, Hamilton recording two wins whilst Rosberg earned his first ever win at the same circuit in 2012.

The 56 laps in China is often affected by rain and early forecasts suggest that the heavens will target qualifying, the third time in four races this year. Tyre degradation was a major factor last year with the eventual winner Fenando Alonso pitting on lap 6 on his first stint, indicating that Force India may have another strong race if they can go easy on the tyres.

With Mercedes likely to dominate Qualifying and the Race, a variety of markets have been considered in finding the best value this bank holiday weekend.

Best Bets of the weekend

Lewis Hamilton - Qualifying Winner - 1.86

I'd back Hamilton 80% of the time to beat his teammate in qualifying and with Mercedes certain to have the fastest car, this looks great value.

Fernando Alonso - Podium Finish - 2.76

Fernando won in China last year and his early showing in FP2 proves that Ferrari should have a strong weekend here for their new Team Principal Marco Mattiacci.

Kimi Raikkonen - Top 6 - 1.95

Raikkonen will show his true class sooner rather than later, it wouldn't surprise me if it's here at China.

Other Bets

Daniel Ricciardo - Podium Finish - 4.0

Although Daniel hasn't got the points on the board, his form has deserved more and a podium is not out of the question

Nico Rosberg - Race Win - 2.98

Really good value for a determined Nico Rosberg. The price difference is far too big for the quality difference between Lewis and Nico

Hamilton/Rosberg - Quali/Winner Double - 4.3

Rosberg started on pole in Bahrain and Hamilton finished on top, the reverse this weekend? At 4.3 it's worth a punt.

Bets We've made:

Hamilton Qualifying Winner - 1.86

Fernando Alonso - Podium Finish - 2.76

Hamilton/Rosberg Quali/Winner Double - 4.3

@F1BetPreview

All odds courtesy of Betfair on Friday Afternoon GMT after FP1 and FP2

Bahrain GP Betting Preview - Hamilton or Rosberg?

Bahrain GP Betting Preview

After predicting two race wins and two pole positions we look ahead to Bahrain, under the lights for the first time in 2014, where it is difficult to see the pendulum swinging away from Mercedes and their stunning early form.

The team would never admit it, but Malaysia was as comfortable as it get's in a extremely satisfactory weekend for all involved at the Mercerdes AMG F1 team. Lewis Hamilton stated that 'the race was tougher than it may have looked' but inside he knows that as far as a race weekend goes, that was simple. The only factor that could have prevented the 2008 World Champion from winning after pulling away on the first lap was a lack of concentration or complacency.

Reliability will be the only doubting factor concerning Mercedes in their quest for three successive race wins, yet their dominance in Malaysia showed that Hamilton and Rosberg can coast through the latter stages of a race and not push their cars to any damaging limits.

The drivers are likely to welcome the news that Bahrain has become the third night race in the 2014 F1 calendar. A drop in temperature during the night will make the 57 laps more bearable for the drivers and the cars and tyres will not be too displeased either.

There will be no real surprises at the Sakhir Circuit, as the teams participated in heavy testing throughout the winter in Bahrain. Upgrades to performance will be minor rather than major in such a short space of time from last Sunday, so the relative performance in Malaysia is likely to be emulated.

Fuel consumption could be the prominent talking point this weekend as heavy breaking and long straights will drain the allotted 100 litres of fuel, seemingly favouring Mercedes and Williams on evidence from Melbourne and Malaysia.

After two previous dramatic wet qualifying sessions, it looks set to be bone dry throughout the weekend and finally the true one lap performance will be tested on Saturday in the 10th Bahrain Grand Prix.

Race Winner

Unless there is a first lap crash or a major mistake in qualifying, it's difficult to look past Hamilton and Rosberg for the race win after their faultless 1/2 in Malaysia.

Hamilton is the outright favourite at 1.83, whilst Rosberg sits second at 3.45. The key determinant of the race outcome and whether Rosberg can challenge Hamilton is his qualifying performance. If Nico can start on the front row, something he hasn't managed in the first two races of 2014, then he will have a shot at Lewis down the long straight and into turn 1. Rosberg jumped from 3rd to 1st before turn 1 in Melbourne and from 3rd to 2nd in Malaysia, so there's no doubt he has already got a firm grip on the start procedure.

If Mercedes land a 1/2 in Qualifying then it's definitely worth a punt on Nico as his fast starts will give Hamilton something to think about. Yet a confident, smiling Lewis will be difficult to overcome and therefore he deserves the 'Best Bet' title this week.

Alonso's three race victories in Bahrain makes him an outside shot for the win but he's unlikely to keep up with the Silver Arrows.

Best Bet: Lewis Hamilton -1.83

Good Shout: Nico Rosberg (If he start's on the front row after Qualifying) Currently - 3.45

Long Shot: Fernando Alonso - 32.0

Qualifying Markets

Hamilton can make it a hat-trick of pole positions on Saturday and he is the clear favourite to achieve that feat at 1.55

If you are looking for better value then predicting who can finish in the top three of Qualifying may be your cup of tea.

Williams have been hindered by the rain in previous qualifying sessions and it wouldn't surprise me if Massa or Bottas takes the third spot in qualifying. Otherwise Vettel could overcome the lack of straight line speed under the RB10 and continue the impressive improvements made by Adrian Newey and co.

Best Bet: Qualifying Winner - Lewis Hamilton - 1.55
Good Shout: Qualifying Top 3 - Sebastian Vettel - 2.6
Long Shot: Qualifying Top 3 -  Felipe Massa - 3.55


Podium Finish

Similarly to the Qualifying Top 3 Market, there is seemingly one spot up for grabs if the Mercedes earn their second successive 1/2.

It's a good time to back the chasing pack for a podium finish as fuel consumption and tyre wear will be challenging to manage. Alonso and Magnussen provide some good value to make an impact in Bahrain.

Best Bet: Nico Rosberg - 1.43
Good Shout Fernando Alonso - 3.05
Long Shot: Kevin Magnussen - 7.4


Other Bets

Nico Hulkenburg to finish in the Top 6 - 2.16

Jean Eric Vergne to finish in the points - 2.62

Lewis Hamilton fastes lap - 2.8

All odds courtesy of Betfair on Friday Evening GMT after FP1 and during FP2