Melbourne 2014 - Get over the finish line and you could be in the points!
The unpredictable euphoria surrounding F1 in 2014 is providing a superbly fascinating opening Grand Prix in Melbourne this week. The well documented changes to the specifications of the new V6's has given constructors a pounding headache as faltering reliability continues to cloud a likely winner for this year's season opener. Brilliant for the viewer, difficult for the teams, disastrous for Sebastian Vettel.
Kimi's win last year was a surprise but not a huge shock as the Lotus outshone the rest of the field with impressive tyre saving whilst Jenson Button's win for the debuting Brawn GP in 2009 was expected after some stunning testing pace in Barcelona pre-Oz. But this is different gravy.
Looking at pre-season testing in Bahrain, the Mercedes boys look to have a slight edge over the field with Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg consistently sparring at the top end of the time sheets, alongside Ferrari, Force India and a fantastic revival by Williams, led by Felipe Massa. The Brazilian is looking to rejuvenate his F1 career after Fernando Alonso dominated him at Ferrari, and he was the man to set the fastest time in Bahrain throughout the winter.
Pace is important, but finishing the race is the only way to gain vital points early doors. A range of high and low budget constructors have embarrassingly struggled to get to grips with the new specifications, particularly those using the overheating Renault engines.
Most notably world champions Red Bull who finished 9th in the total km standings with last year's Australian winners Lotus finishing dead last in the same saddening league table and both are unlikely to be threatening a victory this year.
Who's going to win?
Hamilton leads the way at 5/2 with Rosberg a clear second favourite at 9/2, followed by Alonso in the Ferrari, Massa in the Wililams and Button in the improving Mclaren. It's hard to look past Mercedes for the win, yet reliability also hit the team hard during the latter stages of testing and the possibility of a 1) 2) finish is grim. The large difference in price suggests Rosberg is a better looking bet and his slicker, controlled style may suit the car in making it to the chequered flag. JB represent's strong value at 11/1, with the Mclaren finishing every race last year, albeit at a canter but their improved pace could see them challenging for the top spot on the podium in Australia. Finally if you fancy a long shot then Force India could be the answer. Led by the returning Hulkenburg, the team showed signs of genuine progression in spurts during testing and like Lotus last year, they could start the year strong.
Best Bet: Nico Rosberg 9/2
Good Shout: Jenson Button 11/1
Long Shot: Nico Hulkenburg 33/1
Other Markets
Qualifying Lap
I can't look beyond a Mercedes driver to take this on Saturday, seeing as the team appeared to have extra in the tank that wasn't shown in testing, with no super soft runs on low fuel. Backing any of the two Mercedes drivers at 4/7 should be a banker, however if that's too short for punters then a 'fired up' Lewis Hamilton at 6/4 is the man to back. Williams may well spoil the party and Bottas has the ability to string together a stella lap, proved by his 3rd in Canada last year
Best Bet: Any Mercedes Driver 4/7
Good Shout: Lewis Hamilton 6/4
Long Shot: Valteri Bottas 16/1
Podium Finish
Mclaren, Williams, Force India and Ferrari look the best bets to fill the podium after Mercedes. Experience should prove vital in getting to the finish unscathed in unknown territory with the turbocharged V6's.
Best Bet: Alonso 15/8
Good Shout: Raikkonen 3/1
Long Shot: Vettel 5/1
Top 6
Similarly to the points scored market this really is a wide open field from probably 14 out of the 22 drivers.
If your looking for value, i would take a punt at Magnussen in the Mclaren, the Force India drivers Hulkenburg and Perez, and Sutil went well here last year, he's a long shot with the Sauber.
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